How Moneyline Odds Work (American, Decimal, Fractional)
Sportsbooks display prices in different formats. In the U.S., American odds are standard (e.g., −120, +150). Decimal (e.g., 1.83, 2.50) and fractional (e.g., 5/6, 3/2) mean the same thing, just shown differently.
Converting Odds ↔ Implied Probability
Implied probability tells you what chance the odds represent, before considering the sportsbook’s margin (“vig”).
- American → Implied Probability
Favorites (negative):|Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
Underdogs (positive):100 / (Odds + 100) - American ↔ Decimal
Negative:Decimal = 1 + (100 / |Odds|)
Positive:Decimal = 1 + (Odds / 100) - Decimal → Implied Probability:
1 / Decimal
Worked examples:
- −130 favorite: Decimal = 1 + 100/130 = 1.7692; Implied probability = 130/(130+100) = 56.52%.
- +145 underdog: Decimal = 1 + 145/100 = 2.45; Implied probability = 100/(145+100) = 40.82%.
- −110 favorite: Decimal = 1 + 100/110 = 1.9091; Implied probability = 110/210 = 52.38%.
- +250 underdog: Decimal = 1 + 250/100 = 3.50; Implied probability = 100/350 = 28.57%.
Payout Examples at Different Prices (−120, −110, +120, +250, +500)
All examples below assume a $100 stake. “Total Return” includes your stake; “Profit” is return minus stake.
| American Odds | Decimal | Implied Probability | $100 Stake: Profit | $100 Stake: Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −120 | 1.8333 | 54.55% | $83.33 | $183.33 |
| −110 | 1.9091 | 52.38% | $90.91 | $190.91 |
| +120 | 2.2000 | 45.45% | $120.00 | $220.00 |
| +250 | 3.5000 | 28.57% | $250.00 | $350.00 |
| +500 | 6.0000 | 16.67% | $500.00 | $600.00 |
Favorites, Underdogs, and Pick’em
What “Favorite” Means and Typical Pricing
A favorite has a higher probability of winning. In American odds, favorites are shown with a minus sign (e.g., −135). The bigger the minus number, the higher the implied probability—and the lower the payout per dollar risked.
Underdogs and Upside vs. Risk
An underdog has a lower probability of winning and is priced with a plus sign (e.g., +170). The bigger the plus number, the lower the implied probability—and the higher the potential profit if they upset the favorite.
Pick’em (Even) Lines
When the matchup is rated as essentially even, you’ll see +100 (a.k.a. “even money”) or very small spreads like −105 / −105. At +100, a $100 stake returns $200 total (including stake) if you win.
Two-Way vs. Three-Way Moneylines (Incl. Soccer/Hockey/Draw)
A two-way moneyline has two outcomes: Team A or Team B. A three-way moneyline adds the draw (tie) as a third option and is common in soccer and some hockey markets (for regulation time).
Draw No Bet (DNB): When and Why to Use It
DNB removes the draw as a losing outcome—if the match ends level, your stake is refunded. You’ll get a lower payout than the straight moneyline, but you reduce risk in draw-prone sports or evenly matched games.
| Market | Outcomes Offered | If Home Wins | If Draw | If Away Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Way (NFL) | Home, Away | Home tickets win | N/A | Away tickets win |
| Three-Way (Soccer) | Home, Draw, Away | Home tickets win | Draw tickets win | Away tickets win |
| Draw No Bet | Home DNB, Away DNB | Winning side paid | Stake refunded | Winning side paid |
Moneyline vs. Point Spread: Which Should You Choose?
Pick the bet that matches your read on the game and the price you’re getting:
- Bankroll & Variance: Moneylines on big favorites cost more per dollar of profit (lower variance). Spreads on favorites often pay closer to even money (higher variance if they win but fail to cover).
- Edge Confidence: If you think a favorite wins often but by uncertain margins, the moneyline may be safer. If you think the underdog keeps it within the number more often than the market, the spread may have more value.
- Price Shopping: Always compare prices. A −120 moneyline at one book vs. −110 elsewhere swings long-term results.
Line Shopping and the Sportsbook “Hold” (Vig)
Different sportsbooks post different prices. The difference is partly opinion and partly margin (also called “vig” or “hold”). In a two-sided market where both teams are −110, each side implies 52.38% probability. Add them together and you get 104.76%—the excess above 100% (~4.76%) is the bookmaker’s margin.
Simple hold example across two books:
- Book A: Team Red −110 (52.38%) / Team Blue −110 (52.38%) → Sum = 104.76% (≈4.76% hold).
- Book B: Team Red −105 (51.22%) / Team Blue −105 (51.22%) → Sum = 102.44% (≈2.44% hold).
Lower combined percentage means a thinner margin—often better for bettors.
Price Shopping Snapshot (Same Matchup, Different Books)
Assume Team A’s true win chance is 55% (no draw). With a $100 stake:
| Sportsbook | Team A Price | Profit if Win | Expected Value (EV) at 55% Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book 1 | −120 | $83.33 | 0.55×83.33 − 0.45×100 = +$0.83 |
| Book 2 | −115 | $86.96 | 0.55×86.96 − 0.45×100 = +$2.83 |
| Book 3 | −110 | $90.91 | 0.55×90.91 − 0.45×100 = +$5.00 |
Sport-by-Sport Nuances (Quick Guide)
NFL & NBA (late scratches, closing line moves)
- News moves prices. Late injury/lineup updates can shift a moneyline several cents. Track status and shop late.
- Home-court/field can matter more in tight moneylines; factor travel and rest.
MLB (starting pitchers, bullpens)
- Pitchers drive the number. Confirm “listed pitcher” rules; odds can reprice if the named starter changes.
- Relief usage the previous days affects late-game edges—relevant to close moneylines.
NHL (OT rules, 3-way lines)
- Regulation vs. “including OT” matters. Three-way (regulation-time) markets are different from two-way (with OT/SO).
- Back-to-backs and goalie confirmations can swing prices dramatically.
Soccer (draw dynamics, DNB/Double Chance)
- Leagues vary in draw rates. In draw-heavy leagues, consider DNB or “double chance” (win or draw) instead of the straight ML.
- Travel, fixture congestion, and rotations influence upset risk.
Tennis/UFC (withdrawals, favorites volatility)
- Retirements and weigh-ins matter. Know house rules for retirements (tennis) and weigh-in misses (MMA).
- Big favorites can be volatile if injuries or cardio issues surface mid-event.
How to Place a Moneyline Bet (Step-by-Step)
- Set your unit size. Keep each bet a small percentage of bankroll (e.g., 0.5%–2%).
- Choose the market. Pick the game and decide two-way vs. three-way vs. DNB.
- Read the odds. Convert to implied probability. Ask, “Do I think the true chance is higher than this number?”
- Shop prices. Compare multiple sportsbooks for the best line (−110 vs. −115 matters).
- Add to betslip & confirm. Enter stake, review potential payout, and place your bet.
- Record results. Track closing line vs. your price and maintain discipline.
Beginner Mistakes to Avoid
- Not line-shopping. Small price differences compound over time.
- Chasing steam. Following every move without a reason can lead to bad prices.
- Ignoring injuries/travel/scheduling. Context moves win probabilities.
- Misreading hold/vig. Thicker margins eat expected value.
- Betting too big. Variance happens; bet sizing keeps you in the game.
Moneyline Betting FAQs
Can you put moneylines in parlays?
Yes. Most sportsbooks allow same-sport or multi-sport parlays that include moneylines. Some correlated bets (like moneyline + spread from the same game) may be restricted depending on house rules.
Can you mix spreads and moneylines in a parlay?
Usually yes, as long as the selections aren’t prohibited by correlation rules. Check the betslip—restricted combos will be flagged before you confirm.
Why do prices differ across sportsbooks?
Books manage risk, clientele, and opinion differently. Their margins (vig) also differ. That’s why line shopping is essential.
Is moneyline or spread “better” for favorites/underdogs?
Neither is universally better. If you think a favorite wins often but by variable margins, moneyline may fit. If you think an underdog keeps it close more often than priced, the spread could offer more value.
Do odds move after I bet?
Yes. Prices can move due to new information or market action. Your settled price stays the one you accepted when you placed the bet.
What is a betslip?
The betslip lists your selections, prices, and stake. You confirm the bet from there, and it shows potential payouts.
Are moneylines offered across all sports?
Most mainstream markets offer moneylines, though in some sports you’ll see regulation-time options, three-way markets, or alternative rules. Always check the market label.