- The point spread is a handicap that evens the matchup so either side is ~50/50 after accounting for the vig (bookmaker’s fee).
- Key terms: cover (beat the spread), push (tie/refund), hook (the 0.5 that removes pushes), ATS (Against The Spread).
- Your edge lives in number + price: prefer a better spread (e.g., +3.5 vs +3) or, if numbers match, a better price (e.g., -105 vs -110).
- In football, 3 and 7 are “key numbers” because many games land there; buying half-points around them can be expensive.
- Break-even at -110 is 52.38%. Without a true edge, long-term profits are unlikely; treat this as entertainment and bet responsibly.
What Is Point Spread Betting?
The point spread is a handicap created by the sportsbook to balance two teams. Instead of simply picking who wins the game, you’re betting on the margin of victory (or defeat). The favorite “gives” points (e.g., -6.5), and the underdog “gets” points (e.g., +6.5). Your bet cashes if, after applying the spread, your side finishes “ahead.”
- Cover: Your team beats the spread (favorite wins by more than the negative number; underdog loses by fewer than the positive number or wins outright).
- Push: The adjusted score lands exactly on the spread (e.g., favorite -3 wins by 3). Most books refund pushes.
- Hook: The extra 0.5 on a spread (e.g., -3.5). It prevents pushes and creates a clear win/lose outcome.
Not financial spread betting: In some countries “spread betting” refers to leveraged financial products. Here, we’re talking about sports point spreads—a fixed-stake bet, not a leveraged investment.
Quick example (NFL)
- Line: Eagles -6.5 at -110
- Result: Eagles win by 7+ → cover.
- Win by 6 or fewer, or lose → favorite fails to cover; underdog +6.5 wins.
What Is a Point Spread Wager?
How spreads are set
Oddsmakers blend power ratings, injury reports, home-field/court adjustments, rest/travel, and market expectations to open a spread. Bettors then shape the number with real money; if one side draws too much action, the line moves.
Reading the line
- Favorite: Negative spread (e.g., -4.5). Must win by more than the number to cover.
- Underdog: Positive spread (e.g., +4.5). Can win outright or lose by less than the number to cover.
- Price: The American odds attached to each side (often -110 each way).
How Common Spreads Settle
| Spread | Favorite covers if… | Push if… | Underdog covers if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 / +2.5 | Wins by 3+ | — | Loses by ≤2 or wins |
| -3 / +3 | Wins by 4+ | Wins by 3 | Loses by ≤2 or wins |
| -3.5 / +3.5 | Wins by 4+ | — | Loses by ≤3 or wins |
| -7 / +7 | Wins by 8+ | Wins by 7 | Loses by ≤6 or wins |
| +7.5 / -7.5 | Favorite wins by 8+ | — | Dog loses by ≤7 or wins |
Quick example
- Team A -3: Win by exactly 3 → push. Win by 4+ → cover. Win by 1–2 or lose → fail to cover; dog +3 wins.
What Happens When You Cover the Spread?
A point-spread bet grades as win, loss, or push. A push typically refunds your stake.
- Football: Margins of 3 and 7 create frequent pushes on -3 and -7.
- Basketball: Higher scoring reduces push frequency but you still see pushes on whole numbers.
Parlay note: A push usually drops that leg from the parlay (e.g., a 3-leg becomes a 2-leg). Always check house rules.
Worked examples
- NBA example: Celtics -4.5 vs Knicks.
- Celtics win by 5+ → favorite covers.
- Win by 1–4 or lose → favorite fails to cover; Knicks +4.5 cover.
- NFL example: Lions +3 at 49ers.
- Lions win outright or lose by 1–2 → Lions +3 cover.
- Lose by exactly 3 → push.
- Lose by 4+ → 49ers -3 cover.
Quick example
- Parlay with one leg at +7 that lands exactly on 7 → that leg pushes and is removed; parlay recalculates on remaining legs.
What Is the ‘Juice’ or ‘Vig’ in Point Spreads?
Vig (a.k.a. juice) is the bookmaker’s fee built into the odds. On spread bets you’ll often see -110 on both sides. That price means you risk $110 to win $100. Reduced-juice markets (e.g., -108, -105) lower your break-even rate.
Break-even math (American odds)
- For negative odds (e.g., -110):
Break-even % = Price / (Price + 100) → 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.38% - For positive odds (e.g., +100):
Break-even % = 100 / (100 + Price)
Odds vs Break-Even %
| American Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|
| -105 | 51.22% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| -115 | 53.49% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
Quick example
- You routinely lay -115 instead of -110. Your break-even jumps from 52.38% to 53.49%. Over hundreds of bets, that difference is significant.
Note: Some operators occasionally offer reduced-juice specials or promos around big events. Even small price improvements compound over time.
Do Point Spreads Change, and Why?
Spreads move in response to information and money:
- Injuries & lineups: QB news in NFL or a late scratch in NBA can swing lines dramatically.
- Weather (football): Wind/rain can compress scoring and impact spread/total.
- Market action: Sharp bettors hit early numbers; public money arrives closer to game time.
- Matchup/data updates: Power-rating tweaks, travel spots, rest advantages.
Football key numbers: 3 and 7
NFL games most commonly land on 3 and 7 because of field goals and touchdowns. That’s why -2.5 vs -3 or +3 vs +3.5 matters, and why “buying the hook” around those numbers is debated.
Buying points (pros/cons)
- Pro: Turning -3 into -2.5 avoids pushes and picks up extra wins when the game lands 3.
- Con: You pay extra vig. The cost can outweigh the value unless the number is truly key and the price is fair.
Mini timeline (typical NFL week)
- Opener (Sun night/Mon): Sharp action shapes early moves.
- Midweek (Wed/Thu): Injury reports refine numbers.
- Gameday: Public money hits; lines can snap to key numbers.
Quick example
- Opener: Chiefs -3 (-110).
- Midweek: Star WR questionable; market dips to -2.5 (-115).
- Gameday: WR active; line returns -3 (-110). Timing changed both number and price.
Alternate & Live Point Spreads
Alternate lines let you slide the spread in either direction for a different price. Favor the dog more (e.g., from +3 to +6.5) and your price worsens (you’ll lay more juice). Ask the favorite to win by more (e.g., -3 to -6.5) and you’ll usually get a better payout.
Live (in-play) spreads update during the game using score, time, and possession models. Basketball swings quickly; football moves more around turnovers, red-zone trips, and injury news.
Bankroll caution: Live betting can be volatile—set limits and avoid chasing.
Quick examples
- NBA: Pre-tip: Suns -4.5. After a 14–2 run, market jumps to -9.5 live. If you believed the opening number, the dog may now have value in-game.
- NFL: Pre-kick: Bills -3. Early field goal + stalled drives move it to -2 live; a red-zone turnover can flip to Bills +1.5 briefly.
Shop Around for the Best Point Spread Odds
Line shopping means comparing multiple numbers and prices before you bet. Over time, always taking +3.5 instead of +3, or -105 instead of -110, is a major part of any edge.
How to decide (simple framework)
- Same number, different price → Take the better price (e.g., -105 instead of -110).
- Different number, same price → Prefer the better number (e.g., +3.5 over +3; -2.5 over -3).
- Different number and price → Estimate which is worth more. Around key numbers (3, 7), the number often dominates; elsewhere, price can matter more.
Quick example
- You can bet +3 (-105) or +3.5 (-115). Around NFL 3, the half-point is often valuable—but it costs 10 cents. Decide based on your projection and tolerance for paying extra juice.
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Betting Basics – Sports Betting 101 (Quick Primer)
- Moneyline: Pick the winner. No spread.
- Spread: Bet the margin with a handicap.
- Totals (Over/Under): Bet combined points.
When to choose what
- Moneyline for short favorites/underdogs when you like the team but worry about margin.
- Spread when you have a strong view on how the game plays out and the margin follows.
- Totals when pace, efficiency, weather, or matchups drive scoring more than the winner.
Bankroll basics
- Use unit sizing (e.g., 1–2% of bankroll per wager).
- Track results ATS (Against The Spread) and avoid chasing.
- Swings are normal; variance can be brutal in short samples.
Quick example
- Bankroll $1,000. A 1.5% unit = $15. At -110, a win nets $13.64; a loss costs $15. Consistency prevents tilt after bad beats.
Common Football Key Numbers & Outcome Frequencies
These are qualitative indicators—3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins because they map to field goals and touchdowns. Others like 6, 4, and 10 appear often but less than 3 and 7.
| Margin (pts) | Relative Frequency | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Highest | Field goal games; pushes on -3/+3 are common |
| 7 | High | Single TD margin; affects -7/+7 |
| 6 | Medium | TD vs missed/failed PAT or TD+FG dynamics |
| 4 | Medium | TD vs FG scenarios late |
| 10 | Medium | TD + FG separation |
Optional: Spread Examples Across Sports
| Sport | Example Line | If Favorite Covers | If Push | If Underdog Covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Cowboys -3 vs Giants | Wins by 4+ | Wins by 3 | Loses by ≤2 or wins |
| NBA | Bucks -6.5 vs Bulls | Wins by 7+ | — | Loses by ≤6 or wins |
| NCAAF | USC -7 vs Oregon St | Wins by 8+ | Wins by 7 | Loses by ≤6 or wins |
| NCAAB | Duke -4 vs UNC | Wins by 5+ | Wins by 4 | Loses by ≤3 or wins |
Odds to Break-Even % (Reference)
| American Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|
| -105 | 51.22% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| -115 | 53.49% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
Quick example
- If your true win rate is 53%, you have a small edge at -110, but not at -120. Price discipline matters.
Spread Betting FAQs
How do you line shop?
Compare the number and price across multiple operators. Prefer the better number around key margins (e.g., +3.5 vs +3) and the better price when numbers match (e.g., -105 vs -110).
What is “point spread” in basketball?
A handicap on the final margin. Because scoring is higher, spreads are larger (e.g., -6.5, -9.5) and pushes occur less often than in football, but hooks still matter.
What does betting “against the spread (ATS)” mean?
You’re grading performance relative to the spread, not straight-up wins/losses. An underdog can lose the game but cover ATS.
What is an alternate spread bet?
A customized spread at a different price. Give more points with the favorite for a better payout, or take more with the dog and pay more juice.
What’s the difference between moneyline and point spread?
Moneyline = who wins. Spread = by how much. Moneyline avoids margin risk but often carries higher prices on favorites.
What is a “hook” and why does 0.5 matter?
The hook (0.5) removes pushes and creates clear outcomes. -3.5 is meaningfully different from -3 in NFL because many games land on 3.
What happens on a push?
Most books refund single-bet pushes. In parlays, a push generally reduces the parlay by one leg (check rules).
Is point spread betting profitable and what is the break-even at -110?
Long-term profit requires a real edge and strict price discipline. Break-even at -110 is 52.38%.
Can I bet spreads on tennis/soccer (handicaps)?
Yes. They’re called point games or game handicaps in tennis and goal handicaps (including Asian handicaps) in soccer. Mechanics are similar: apply the handicap, then grade the outcome.
Are spreads legal in USA?
Sports betting is legal in many states and prohibited in others. Availability varies by jurisdiction. Wager only where it’s legal and regulated.
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